1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction
Kick-off: · Finished
Our value pick · Total
Over 3
Best odds at Pinnacle · average 1.933 across 3 bookmakers
- Edge
- +3.9%
- Our probability
- 53.0%
- Market probability
- 50.2%
- Confidence
- Medium
xG stats and head-to-head history point to a high total, market gives ~50% on Over 3.0.
Match analysis
Per ESPN: Cologne concedes 1.5 goals/game (xGA 1.48), Leverkusen 2.0 (xGA 1.71). Away side xG 1.92, home side 1.54. Combined xG 3.46. Last 5 H2H: 3, 2, 5, 2, 3 goals (avg 3.0). Cologne home last 5: 5:0, 0:0, 2:1 (2 of 3 with total ≥3). Leverkusen away: 0:3, 2:0. Season scoring averages: 1.12 + 2.25 = 3.37. Market fair_prob on Over 3.0 = 50.2%, our model 53% gives edge ~3.9% at odds 1.96. No injury/rotation data found.
Key factors
- Leverkusen concedes 2.0 goals/game (xGA 1.71), Cologne 1.5 (xGA 1.48)
- Leverkusen creates 1.92 xG/game, match combined xG 3.46
- H2H: 5/5 matches with ≥3 goals, avg total 3.0
- Cologne home: 2 of last 3 matches with total ≥3
- Season sum of scoring averages 3.37
Risks to the pick
- No injury or lineup news data (search returned no results)
- Leverkusen played in EL 05 Nov — rotation possible
- Cologne 4 matches unbeaten (2W 2D), may play cautiously
- Leverkusen lost 3 of last 5, form inconsistent
Form & standings
1. FC Köln Home
- 01 Nov 2026 away vs 1. FC Union Berlin 1:1 (D) · Bundesliga
- 27 Oct 2026 home vs 1. FC Union Berlin 5:0 (W) · German Cup
- 24 Oct 2026 home vs Schalke 04 0:0 (D) · Bundesliga
- 16 Oct 2026 away vs Eintracht Frankfurt 0:1 (L) · Bundesliga
- 11 Oct 2026 home vs Borussia Mönchengladbach 2:1 (W) · Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen Away
- 05 Nov 2026 home vs Marseille 0:1 (L) · UEFA Europa League
- 31 Oct 2026 home vs VfB Stuttgart 2:4 (L) · Bundesliga
- 28 Oct 2026 home vs 1. FC Nürnberg 5:2 (W) · German Cup
- 25 Oct 2026 away vs TSG Hoffenheim 0:3 (L) · Bundesliga
- 22 Oct 2026 away vs OFI Crete 2:0 (W) · UEFA Europa League
Head-to-head
B04 leads series 5-0: 25 Apr 2026 FC Cologne 1:2 Bayer Leverkusen · 2025-26 German Bundesliga; 13 Dec 2025 Bayer Leverkusen 2:0 FC Cologne · 2025-26 German Bundesliga; 05 Feb 2025 Bayer Leverkusen 3:2 FC Cologne · 2024-25 German Cup; 03 Mar 2024 FC Cologne 0:2 Bayer Leverkusen · 2023-24 German Bundesliga; 08 Oct 2023 Bayer Leverkusen 3:0 FC Cologne · 2023-24 German Bundesliga
Scoring trends
Cologne: 1.12 scored / 1.5 conceded / xG 1.54 / xGA 1.48; Leverkusen: 2.25 scored / 2.0 conceded / xG 1.92 / xGA 1.71. Combined xG 3.46 vs xGA 3.19
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | 1. FC Köln to win | 4.7 | Matchbook | 4.243 | 22.3% |
| Match result | Draw | 4.3 | 1xBet | 3.963 | 23.9% |
| Match result | Bayer Leverkusen to win | 1.83 | Betfair | 1.757 | 53.8% |
| Total | Over 2.5 | 1.58 | Betsson | 1.557 | 60.2% |
| Total | Under 2.5 | 2.41 | Betsson | 2.355 | 39.8% |
| Total | Over 3 | 1.96 | Pinnacle | 1.933 | 50.2% |
| Total | Under 3 | 1.96 | BetOnline.ag | 1.95 | 49.8% |
| Total | Over 3.5 | 2.46 | Matchbook | 2.289 | 41.4% |
| Total | Under 3.5 | 1.66 | LeoVegas (SE) | 1.617 | 58.6% |
| h2h_lay | 1. FC Köln | 4.8 | Matchbook | 4.75 | 21.4% |
| h2h_lay | Draw | 4.3 | Betfair | 4.3 | 23.6% |
| h2h_lay | Bayer Leverkusen | 1.85 | Matchbook | 1.845 | 55.0% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.