Celta Vigo vs Levante prediction
Kick-off: · Finished
No value found · best option considered · Match result
Levante to win
Best odds at Betfair · average 4.358 across 21 bookmakers
- Edge
- +12.8%
- Our probability
- 24.0%
- Market probability
- 21.7%
- Confidence
- Low
Levante with extended rest against tired Celta after Europa League has value on away win
Match analysis
Celta played in Europa League on 5 Nov (1-2 loss to Union SG) and has 3 days recovery before the match. Levante has rested since 31 Oct (last match: home 0-2 vs Atletico). Celta's home form in La Liga: 0-3 vs Rayo, 0-0 vs Betis, 2-1 vs Alaves. Last season Levante won at Balaidos 3-2 (12 May 2026). Celta xG 0.89, xGA 1.16; Levante xG 1.36, xGA 1.90 (ESPN data). Market gives Celta 52.1% (fair_prob), but doesn't fully account for schedule factor and recent form.
Key factors
- Celta: 3 days rest after Europa League (5 Nov)
- Levante: 8 days rest since last match (31 Oct)
- Last meeting at Balaidos: 2-3 to Levante (12 May 2026)
- Celta xG 0.89, xGA 1.16 (ESPN data)
- Levante beat Athletic 3-1 at home 21 Oct 2026
- Celta 12th (12 pts), Levante 17th (10 pts) — 2-point gap
Risks to the pick
- No injury/suspension data for either team
- Celta may field strongest XI despite Europa League
- Levante lost last away league match (25 Oct at Real Sociedad 1-2)
- Celta key players (Aspas et al.) could decide match individually
Form & standings
Celta Vigo Home
- 05 Nov 2026 home vs Union St.-Gilloise 1-2 (L) · UEFA Europa League
- 31 Oct 2026 away vs Rayo Vallecano 0-3 (L) · LALIGA
- 25 Oct 2026 home vs Real Betis 0-0 (D) · LALIGA
- 22 Oct 2026 away vs Celtic 2-1 (W) · UEFA Europa League
- 18 Oct 2026 home vs Alavés 2-1 (W) · LALIGA
Levante Away
- 31 Oct 2026 home vs Atlético Madrid 0-2 (L) · LALIGA
- 25 Oct 2026 away vs Real Sociedad 1-2 (L) · LALIGA
- 21 Oct 2026 home vs Athletic Club 3-1 (W) · LALIGA
- 16 Oct 2026 away vs Deportivo 1-1 (D) · LALIGA
- 12 Oct 2026 home vs Sevilla 3-3 (D) · LALIGA
Head-to-head
CEL leads series 3-1-1: 12 May 2026 Celta Vigo 2:3 Levante · 2025-26 LALIGA; 02 Nov 2025 Levante 1:2 Celta Vigo · 2025-26 LALIGA; 21 Feb 2022 Celta Vigo 1:1 Levante · 2021-22 LaLiga; 21 Sep 2021 Levante 0:2 Celta Vigo · 2021-22 LaLiga; 30 Apr 2021 Celta Vigo 2:0 Levante · 2020-2021 LaLiga
Scoring trends
Celta: 0.91 scored / 0.91 conceded, xG 0.89 / 1.16. Levante: 1.45 scored / 1.91 conceded, xG 1.36 / 1.90 (ESPN)
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Celta Vigo to win | 1.91 | Matchbook | 1.811 | 52.1% |
| Match result | Draw | 3.8 | Unibet (NL) | 3.612 | 26.2% |
| Match result | Levante to win | 4.7 | Betfair | 4.358 | 21.7% |
| Total | Over 2.5 | 1.93 | 1xBet | 1.867 | 50.8% |
| Total | Under 2.5 | 2.02 | Matchbook | 1.926 | 49.2% |
| h2h_lay | Celta Vigo | 1.93 | Matchbook | 1.92 | 52.5% |
| h2h_lay | Draw | 3.8 | Betfair | 3.8 | 26.5% |
| h2h_lay | Levante | 4.8 | Betfair | 4.8 | 21.0% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.