Crystal Palace vs Liverpool prediction
Kick-off: · Finished
No value found · best option considered · Total
Under 2.5
Best odds at Betsson · average 2.637 across 3 bookmakers
- Edge
- +6.4%
- Our probability
- 40.0%
- Market probability
- 35.8%
- Confidence
- Low
Under 2.5 goals offers value due to Palace's weak attack and recent low-scoring matches of both teams in the Premier League.
Match analysis
Crystal Palace scores 1.00 goals/game on average (xG 1.21) and failed to score in their last 2 PL matches. Liverpool scored 2 goals in their last 2 PL matches and lost 2 of their last 3 matches. Head-to-head history shows Palace can cause problems for Liverpool at Selhurst Park (3 wins in last 5 meetings). Market fair_prob for Under 2.5 is 35.8%, but recent PL form of both teams points to a more cagey, low-scoring match. Confidence is low due to lack of injury/lineup data and fatigue factor from European competitions.
Key factors
- Palace: 0 goals in last 2 PL matches (0:2 vs Tottenham, 0:2 vs Newcastle)
- Liverpool: 2 goals in last 2 PL matches (0:1 vs Arsenal, 2:0 vs Brighton)
- Average xG: Palace 1.21 + Liverpool 1.34 = 2.55; actual average goals: 1.00 + 1.22 = 2.22
- H2H: Palace 3-1-1 in last 5 (2:1 win at Anfield Apr 2026, 3:0 at Anfield Oct 2025 League Cup)
Risks to the pick
- No injury/rotation data — Liverpool may field a strengthened side after UCL loss
- Palace fixture congestion: Europa League match 05 Nov vs Hoffenheim (Thursday)
- Liverpool's attacking potential (Isak 6 goals, Gakpo/Wirtz/Barcola — creativity) vs Palace conceding 2.33 per game
- Small sample size this season (9 games each)
Form & standings
Crystal Palace Home
- 05 Nov 2026 home vs TSG Hoffenheim 1:1 (D) · UEFA Europa League
- 31 Oct 2026 away vs Tottenham Hotspur 0:2 (L) · Premier League
- 28 Oct 2026 away vs Fulham 1:0 (W) · Carabao Cup
- 25 Oct 2026 home vs Newcastle United 0:2 (L) · Premier League
- 22 Oct 2026 away vs Besiktas 2:2 (D) · UEFA Europa League
Liverpool Away
- 04 Nov 2026 away vs Fenerbahce 2:3 (L) · UEFA Champions League
- 01 Nov 2026 home vs Arsenal 0:1 (L) · Premier League
- 28 Oct 2026 home vs Chelsea 1:1 (W) · Carabao Cup
- 25 Oct 2026 home vs Brighton & Hove Albion 2:0 (W) · Premier League
- 20 Oct 2026 home vs Villarreal 4:3 (W) · UEFA Champions League
Head-to-head
CRY leads series 3-1-1: 25 Apr 2026 Liverpool 3:1 Crystal Palace · 2025-26 English Premier League; 29 Oct 2025 Liverpool 0:3 Crystal Palace · 2025-26 English Carabao Cup; 27 Sep 2025 Crystal Palace 2:1 Liverpool · 2025-26 English Premier League; 10 Aug 2025 Crystal Palace 2:2 Liverpool · 2025 English FA Community Shield; 25 May 2025 Liverpool 1:1 Crystal Palace · 2024-25 English Premier League
Scoring trends
Palace: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (PL: 0 scored, 2.00 conceded in last 2); Liverpool: 1.22 scored, 1.00 conceded (PL: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded in last 2). Combined xG ~2.55 per game.
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Crystal Palace to win | 6.25 | Unibet (NL) | 5.474 | 17.4% |
| Match result | Draw | 4.7 | Betfair | 4.421 | 21.4% |
| Match result | Liverpool to win | 1.61 | 1xBet | 1.548 | 61.2% |
| Total | Over 2.5 | 1.49 | Betsson | 1.47 | 64.2% |
| Total | Under 2.5 | 2.66 | Betsson | 2.637 | 35.8% |
| Total | Over 3.25 | 2 | Pinnacle | 1.99 | 48.6% |
| Total | Under 3.25 | 1.91 | Pinnacle | 1.88 | 51.4% |
| Total | Over 3.5 | 2.34 | 1xBet | 2.214 | 42.6% |
| Total | Under 3.5 | 1.72 | Matchbook | 1.645 | 57.4% |
| h2h_lay | Crystal Palace | 6.2 | Betfair | 6.2 | 16.3% |
| h2h_lay | Draw | 4.8 | Betfair | 4.8 | 21.1% |
| h2h_lay | Liverpool | 1.62 | Matchbook | 1.615 | 62.6% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.