Fiorentina vs Juventus prediction
Kick-off: · Finished
No value found · best option considered · Total
Over 2.5
Best odds at Pinnacle · average 1.85 across 17 bookmakers
- Edge
- +1.4%
- Our probability
- 52.0%
- Market probability
- 51.4%
- Confidence
- Low
The market accurately priced the total 2.5: high league scoring is offset by Juventus' reliable defensive play and fatigue after the Europa League.
Match analysis
Serie A 2026/27 averages 3.18 goals per match (Wikipedia). Fiorentina 5/5 last matches over 2.5, but at home concedes 2.5 goals per game (2-2 vs Atalanta, 1-3 vs Como). Juventus only 2/5 over 2.5 in last 5, concedes 1.0 goals per match, has 2 clean sheets in 5. Head-to-head: 2/5 over 2.5. Juventus played Nov 5 in EL (flight from Netherlands), 3 days rest vs 6 for Fiorentina. Market fair_prob 51.4% on over 2.5; my assessment 52% gives edge <1% at best odds 1.95. Without confirmed injury/lineup news there is no edge.
Key factors
- League average scoring 3.18 goals/match (Wikipedia 2026-27 Serie A)
- Fiorentina 5/5 last matches over 2.5, but at home concedes 2.5 goals/game
- Juventus 2/5 over 2.5 in last 5, 2 clean sheets, 1.0 conceded on average
- Juventus: 3 days rest after EL (win 2-1 at AZ 05 Nov 2026), Fiorentina: 6 days rest
- Head-to-head: 2/5 last over 2.5 (0-2, 1-1, 3-0, 2-2, 1-0)
Risks to the pick
- No reliable data on injuries/suspensions (search returned no results)
- Possible Juventus rotation after EL could weaken attack or defense
- Poor Fiorentina home form (loss to Como, draw with Atalanta)
- High totals variance in Serie A this season
- Weather/pitch conditions unknown
Form & standings
Fiorentina Home
- 02 Nov 2026 away vs Sassuolo 4:2 (W) · Serie A
- 29 Oct 2026 home vs Atalanta 2:2 (D) · Serie A
- 25 Oct 2026 away vs Internazionale 1:2 (L) · Serie A
- 18 Oct 2026 home vs Como 1:3 (L) · Serie A
- 10 Oct 2026 away vs Genoa 1:2 (L) · Serie A
Juventus Away
- 05 Nov 2026 away vs AZ Alkmaar 2:1 (W) · UEFA Europa League
- 01 Nov 2026 home vs Napoli 2:0 (W) · Serie A
- 28 Oct 2026 away vs Genoa 0:2 (L) · Serie A
- 25 Oct 2026 away vs Lecce 2:0 (W) · Serie A
- 22 Oct 2026 home vs Stade Rennais 2:2 (D) · UEFA Europa League
Head-to-head
FIO leads series 2-1-2: 17 May 2026 Juventus 0:2 Fiorentina · 2025-26 Italian Serie A; 22 Nov 2025 Fiorentina 1:1 Juventus · 2025-26 Italian Serie A; 16 Mar 2025 Fiorentina 3:0 Juventus · 2024-25 Italian Serie A; 29 Dec 2024 Juventus 2:2 Fiorentina · 2024-25 Italian Serie A; 07 Apr 2024 Juventus 1:0 Fiorentina · 2023-24 Italian Serie A
Scoring trends
Serie A average 3.18 goals/match; Fiorentina concedes 2.2 goals/game over 5 matches; Juventus concedes 1.0 goals/game over 5 matches
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Fiorentina to win | 3.6 | Unibet (SE) | 3.391 | 27.9% |
| Match result | Draw | 3.65 | Unibet (SE) | 3.4 | 27.8% |
| Match result | Juventus to win | 2.26 | Betfair | 2.134 | 44.3% |
| Total | Over 2.5 | 1.95 | Pinnacle | 1.85 | 51.4% |
| Total | Under 2.5 | 2.04 | LeoVegas (SE) | 1.955 | 48.6% |
| h2h_lay | Fiorentina | 3.65 | Matchbook | 3.625 | 27.9% |
| h2h_lay | Draw | 3.65 | Matchbook | 3.625 | 27.9% |
| h2h_lay | Juventus | 2.28 | Betfair | 2.28 | 44.3% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.