Genoa vs AC Milan prediction
Kick-off: · Finished
Our value pick · Match result
Genoa to win
Best odds at 1xBet · average 4.09 across 24 bookmakers
- Edge
- +21.6%
- Our probability
- 27.5%
- Market probability
- 23.1%
- Confidence
- Medium
Genoa in excellent home form (3 straight wins) host a tired Milan after European competition with 3 days rest — market overrates visitors on name and table position.
Match analysis
Genoa won 4 of last 5 matches, including 3 straight home wins over Juventus (2:0), Venezia (1:0) and Fiorentina (2:1) — only one loss at Roma. Milan lost 3 of last 5 (0:2 vs Ferencvaros home, 2:4 vs Bologna home, 0:3 at Bournemouth) and play Sunday after Thursday Europa League match — only 3 days recovery. Genoa rested since Nov 1 (week break). H2H: Milan lead 2-0-3, last in Genoa (May 2026) — 1:2. Market gives Milan 48.4% fair prob, but form, schedule and home factor make odds 4.42 on hosts inflated. Genoa win chance estimated ~27.5% (edge ~21%).
Key factors
- Genoa: 3 straight home wins (Juventus 2:0, Venezia 1:0, Fiorentina 2:1), 4 wins in last 5
- Milan: 3 losses in last 5, incl. 0:2 home vs Ferencvaros in EL Nov 5
- Schedule: Milan play 3rd day after EL (travel), Genoa — full week rest
- Genoa home stats: 3 clean sheets in last 3 home games
Risks to the pick
- Milan's higher class — individual brilliance can decide match
- Possible Milan rotation unconfirmed (no access to previews/injuries)
- Genoa may sit deep and lose on a single moment
- Refereeing factors / VAR in Serie A
Form & standings
Genoa Home
- 01 Nov 2026 away vs Lecce 2:1 (W) · Serie A
- 28 Oct 2026 home vs Juventus 2:0 (W) · Serie A
- 25 Oct 2026 home vs Venezia 1:0 (W) · Serie A
- 17 Oct 2026 away vs AS Roma 0:2 (L) · Serie A
- 10 Oct 2026 home vs Fiorentina 2:1 (W) · Serie A
AC Milan Away
- 05 Nov 2026 home vs Ferencvaros 0:2 (L) · UEFA Europa League
- 31 Oct 2026 home vs Internazionale 3:1 (W) · Serie A
- 28 Oct 2026 home vs Bologna 2:4 (L) · Serie A
- 25 Oct 2026 away vs Udinese 2:0 (W) · Serie A
- 22 Oct 2026 away vs AFC Bournemouth 0:3 (L) · UEFA Europa League
Head-to-head
MIL leads series 2-0-3: 17 May 2026 Genoa 1:2 AC Milan · 2025-26 Italian Serie A; 08 Jan 2026 AC Milan 1:1 Genoa · 2025-26 Italian Serie A; 05 May 2025 Genoa 1:2 AC Milan · 2024-25 Italian Serie A; 15 Dec 2024 AC Milan 0:0 Genoa · 2024-25 Italian Serie A; 05 May 2024 AC Milan 3:3 Genoa · 2023-24 Italian Serie A
Injuries & team news
No access to fresh previews/injuries (search returned no results for November 2026)
Scoring trends
Genoa home: 5 scored, 1 conceded in last 3; Milan away: 2 scored, 3 conceded in last 2 away (Udinese, Bournemouth)
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Genoa to win | 4.42 | 1xBet | 4.09 | 23.1% |
| Match result | Draw | 3.5 | 1xBet | 3.308 | 28.5% |
| Match result | AC Milan to win | 2.06 | Betfair | 1.951 | 48.4% |
| Total | Over 2.25 | 1.96 | Pinnacle | 1.935 | 49.9% |
| Total | Under 2.25 | 1.94 | Pinnacle | 1.925 | 50.1% |
| Total | Over 2.5 | 2.22 | 1xBet | 2.128 | 44.5% |
| Total | Under 2.5 | 1.78 | Coolbet | 1.702 | 55.5% |
| h2h_lay | Genoa | 4.5 | Matchbook | 4.5 | 22.4% |
| h2h_lay | Draw | 3.5 | Matchbook | 3.475 | 29.0% |
| h2h_lay | AC Milan | 2.08 | Matchbook | 2.08 | 48.5% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.