Ipswich Town vs Bournemouth prediction
Kick-off: · Finished
No value found · best option considered · Total
Over 2.75
Best odds at Pinnacle · average 1.94 across 2 bookmakers
- Edge
- +0.5%
- Our probability
- 51.0%
- Market probability
- 49.7%
- Confidence
- Low
Bournemouth's attack in excellent form, Ipswich's defense concedes a lot, but visitors' fatigue after EL and hosts' extra rest create uncertainty; Over 2.75 slightly preferable, but no edge.
Match analysis
Bournemouth won their last 5 matches, scoring 14 goals and conceding 1, with xG +0.7. Ipswich have no clean sheets (0 clean sheets), concede 2.0 per game, xG -0.6. However, Bournemouth played Thursday in Prague (EL) — 3 days rest vs 8 for Ipswich (last match 31 Oct). In the last 10 combined matches, 7 had 3+ goals, but the market has already priced in high scoring (fair_prob 49.7%). Without confirmed rotation/injury news, the analysis gives only ~1.3% edge.
Key factors
- Bournemouth 5-0-0 last 5, 14 scored, 1 conceded
- Ipswich: 0 clean sheets, 2.0 conceded per game, xG -0.6
- Bournemouth: 3-day turnaround (EL Thu → PL Sun), Ipswich: 8 days rest
- Last 10 combined matches: 7 with 3+ goals (Over 2.75)
- League average 2.68 goals/match (Wikipedia)
Risks to the pick
- Bournemouth may rotate squad after EL exertion
- Ipswich's home resilience (1W 1D in 2 home PL matches)
- No confirmed injury/lineup news
- Small sample this season (9 matches each)
Form & standings
Ipswich Town Home
- 31 Oct 2026 away vs Hull City 2:2 (D) · Premier League
- 23 Oct 2026 home vs Nottingham Forest 1:1 (D) · Premier League
- 17 Oct 2026 away vs Manchester City 2:3 (L) · Premier League
- 10 Oct 2026 home vs Fulham 2:1 (W) · Premier League
- 19 Sep 2026 away vs Everton 0:1 (L) · Premier League
Bournemouth Away
- 05 Nov 2026 away vs Sparta Prague 3:1 (W) · UEFA Europa League
- 31 Oct 2026 home vs Leeds United 2:0 (W) · Premier League
- 28 Oct 2026 home vs Aston Villa 3:0 (W) · Carabao Cup
- 25 Oct 2026 away vs Manchester United 3:0 (W) · Premier League
- 22 Oct 2026 home vs AC Milan 3:0 (W) · UEFA Europa League
Head-to-head
Series tied 1-1-3: 02 Apr 2025 AFC Bournemouth 1:2 Ipswich Town · 2024-25 English Premier League; 08 Dec 2024 Ipswich Town 1:2 AFC Bournemouth · 2024-25 English Premier League; 03 Apr 2015 Ipswich Town 1:1 AFC Bournemouth · 2014-15 English League Championship; 22 Nov 2014 AFC Bournemouth 2:2 Ipswich Town · 2014-15 English League Championship; 21 Apr 2014 Ipswich Town 2:2 AFC Bournemouth · 2013-14 English League Championship
Injuries & team news
No confirmed injury news found
Scoring trends
League average 2.68 goals/match. Ipswich: 1.56 scored, 2.00 conceded. Bournemouth: 1.56 scored, 1.44 conceded. Last 10 combined: 7 matches with 3+ goals.
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ipswich Town to win | 4.1 | Betfair | 3.832 | 24.8% |
| Match result | Draw | 4 | Unibet (SE) | 3.731 | 25.4% |
| Match result | Bournemouth to win | 1.99 | Betfair | 1.902 | 49.8% |
| Total | Over 2.5 | 1.74 | 1xBet | 1.681 | 56.2% |
| Total | Under 2.5 | 2.27 | 1xBet | 2.157 | 43.8% |
| Total | Over 2.75 | 1.97 | Pinnacle | 1.94 | 49.7% |
| Total | Under 2.75 | 1.93 | Pinnacle | 1.92 | 50.3% |
| h2h_lay | Ipswich Town | 4.3 | Matchbook | 4.25 | 23.8% |
| h2h_lay | Draw | 3.95 | Betfair | 3.95 | 25.6% |
| h2h_lay | Bournemouth | 2.02 | Betfair | 2.005 | 50.5% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.