Le Havre vs Lorient prediction
Kick-off: · Finished
Our value pick · Match result
Lorient to win
Best odds at Betfair · average 2.393 across 21 bookmakers
- Edge
- +13.4%
- Our probability
- 45.0%
- Market probability
- 39.4%
- Confidence
- Medium
Lorient in better form with more reliable defense than Le Havre, despite hosts' home advantage
Match analysis
Le Havre lost their last 4 Ligue 1 matches, conceding 12 goals (3.0 per game), including a home loss to Auxerre (1:3) and an away loss to Lille (0:1). Their xGA of 1.84 confirms defensive issues. Lorient won 3 of their last 5 matches (including vs Monaco), drew with Angers away, and concede only 0.89 goals per game with a positive xGD (+0.1). The 5-point table gap (12th vs 17th) and Lorient's superior underlying metrics suggest the market underrates the visitors' chances (39.4%). Le Havre's only recent win came in a friendly vs Boulogne. Historical H2H advantage (Le Havre unbeaten in 5) outweighs current form. Wikipedia confirms Le Havre's 9-match winless streak and 5 straight losses as of 1 November.
Key factors
- Le Havre: 4 straight Ligue 1 losses, 12 goals conceded (3.0/match), xGA 1.84
- Lorient: 3W-1D-1L in last 5, only 0.89 conceded per game, positive xGD +0.1
- Table: Lorient 12th (12 pts) vs Le Havre 17th (7 pts) after 9 rounds
- Lorient's away draw with Angers (0:0) shows defensive solidity on the road
- Wikipedia: Le Havre have league's longest winless streak (9) and losing streak (5) as of 1 Nov
Risks to the pick
- No injury/suspension data — key absences could change the outlook
- Le Havre's home desperation and historical H2H dominance (2W-3D-0L in 5 matches)
- Lorient's weak attack (0.78 goals/game, 1.03 xG) may fail to capitalize on advantage
- In Lorient's recent sample only one away league match (0:0 vs Angers)
Form & standings
Le Havre Home
- 30 Oct 2026 home vs Paris Saint-Germain 1:5 (L) · Ligue 1
- 25 Oct 2026 away vs Marseille 3:4 (L) · Ligue 1
- 18 Oct 2026 home vs AJ Auxerre 1:3 (L) · Ligue 1
- 10 Oct 2026 away vs Lille 0:1 (L) · Ligue 1
- 02 Oct 2026 home vs Boulogne 6:1 (W) · Club Friendly
Lorient Away
- 02 Nov 2026 home vs Brest 0:2 (L) · Ligue 1
- 25 Oct 2026 away vs Angers 0:0 (D) · Ligue 1
- 18 Oct 2026 home vs AS Monaco 1:0 (W) · Ligue 1
- 10 Oct 2026 home vs Paris FC 1:0 (W) · Ligue 1
- 03 Oct 2026 home vs Nantes 2:1 (W) · Club Friendly
Head-to-head
HAC leads series 2-0-3: 17 May 2026 Lorient 0:2 Le Havre AC · 2025-26 Ligue 1; 21 Sep 2025 Le Havre AC 1:1 Lorient · 2025-26 Ligue 1; 28 Jan 2024 Lorient 3:3 Le Havre AC · 2023-24 Ligue 1; 03 Sep 2023 Le Havre AC 3:0 Lorient · 2023-24 Ligue 1; 19 Oct 2019 Le Havre AC 2:2 Lorient · Regular Season
Injuries & team news
No injury/suspension data from available sources
Scoring trends
Le Havre avg 1.00 scored / 2.22 conceded; Lorient 0.78 scored / 0.89 conceded. Le Havre matches: 4/5 Over 2.5; Lorient: 1/5 Over 2.5
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Le Havre to win | 3.2 | Betfair | 2.994 | 31.5% |
| Match result | Draw | 3.51 | 1xBet | 3.251 | 29.0% |
| Match result | Lorient to win | 2.52 | Betfair | 2.393 | 39.4% |
| Total | Over 2.5 | 2.12 | 1xBet | 2.041 | 46.3% |
| Total | Under 2.5 | 1.84 | 1xBet | 1.76 | 53.7% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.