Monza vs Atalanta BC prediction
Kick-off: · Finished
No value found · best option considered · Match result
Atalanta BC to win
Best odds at GTbets · average 1.984 across 24 bookmakers
- Edge
- +1.9%
- Our probability
- 49.0%
- Market probability
- 47.6%
- Confidence
- Low
The market fairly assesses Atalanta's chances; without lineup/injury news there is no clear edge.
Match analysis
Monza 18th (7 pts in 10 matches), form LLLWL: 1 win in last 5 (4-0 vs Cagliari home) and 4 losses with 12 goals conceded. Atalanta 13th (11 pts), 0 wins in last 5 (3 draws, 2 losses), but dominate H2H 5-0. Monza have 8 days rest (last match 31 Oct), Atalanta 3 days after Euro cup (05 Nov). Both teams high-scoring: Monza avg total 4.2 over 5 matches, Atalanta 3.8. Market gives Atalanta 47.6%, my estimate ~49% — edge < 3%. No injury/rotation data.
Key factors
- Monza: 18th place, form LLLWL, 12 conceded in 5 matches
- Atalanta: 13th place, form DLDDL, H2H 5-0 in Atalanta's favor
- Rest: Monza 8 days, Atalanta 3 days after match vs Kairat
- Avg total: Monza 4.2, Atalanta 3.8 over last 5 matches
Risks to the pick
- No data on injuries/suspensions and expected lineups
- Atalanta may rotate squad after Euro cup
- Monza at home fighting for survival — higher motivation
- Weather conditions/pitch may reduce scoring
Form & standings
Monza Home
- 31 Oct 2026 away vs Bologna 1:2 (L) · Serie A
- 28 Oct 2026 home vs Napoli 1:4 (L) · Serie A
- 23 Oct 2026 away vs Torino 2:3 (L) · Serie A
- 19 Oct 2026 home vs Cagliari 4:0 (W) · Serie A
- 11 Oct 2026 away vs Lazio 1:3 (L) · Serie A
Atalanta BC Away
- 05 Nov 2026 home vs Kairat Almaty 1:1 (D) · UEFA Conference League
- 02 Nov 2026 home vs Parma 0:3 (L) · Serie A
- 29 Oct 2026 away vs Fiorentina 2:2 (D) · Serie A
- 25 Oct 2026 home vs Frosinone 4:4 (D) · Serie A
- 22 Oct 2026 away vs Ajax Amsterdam 0:2 (L) · UEFA Conference League
Head-to-head
ATA leads series 5-0: 04 May 2025 Monza 0:4 Atalanta · 2024-25 Italian Serie A; 30 Oct 2024 Atalanta 2:0 Monza · 2024-25 Italian Serie A; 21 Apr 2024 Monza 1:2 Atalanta · 2023-24 Italian Serie A; 02 Sep 2023 Atalanta 3:0 Monza · 2023-24 Italian Serie A; 04 Jun 2023 Atalanta 5:2 Monza · 2022-23 Italian Serie A
Scoring trends
Monza (all matches): avg total 4.2 over 5 matches; home over 2 matches — 4.5. Atalanta (all matches): avg total 3.8 over 5 matches; away in Serie A over 2 matches — 3.5
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Monza to win | 3.75 | Matchbook | 3.43 | 27.6% |
| Match result | Draw | 4.1 | BetAnything | 3.803 | 24.8% |
| Match result | Atalanta BC to win | 2.08 | GTbets | 1.984 | 47.6% |
| Total | Over 2.5 | 1.47 | Betsson | 1.457 | 64.7% |
| Total | Under 2.5 | 2.71 | Betsson | 2.67 | 35.3% |
| Total | Over 3.25 | 1.99 | Pinnacle | 1.96 | 49.3% |
| Total | Under 3.25 | 1.92 | Pinnacle | 1.905 | 50.7% |
| Total | Over 3.5 | 2.28 | LeoVegas (SE) | 2.18 | 43.4% |
| Total | Under 3.5 | 1.79 | Matchbook | 1.669 | 56.6% |
| h2h_lay | Monza | 3.8 | Matchbook | 3.775 | 26.7% |
| h2h_lay | Draw | 4.1 | Matchbook | 4.1 | 24.6% |
| h2h_lay | Atalanta BC | 2.08 | Matchbook | 2.07 | 48.7% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.