SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin prediction
Kick-off: · Finished
Our value pick · Total
Over 2.5
Best odds at Matchbook · average 1.627 across 12 bookmakers
- Edge
- +9.0%
- Our probability
- 63.0%
- Market probability
- 58.0%
- Confidence
- Medium
Freiburg's seasonal scoring and Union's defensive problems create an advantage for Over 2.5, despite head-to-head history.
Match analysis
Freiburg scores 2.25 and concedes 1.25 goals per match on average (xG 1.58 / xGA 1.11), Union — 0.88 and 2.38 (xG 1.15 / xGA 1.88). Combined match averages for both teams ~3.4 goals. Freiburg played Thursday in Turkey (3 days rest), rotation/fatigue possible, increasing risk of conceding. Union rested 7 days but lost 0:5 in Cup to Köln, confirming defensive issues. Head-to-head history (2 of 5 with total >2.5) reflects past seasons and doesn't account for current attack/defense asymmetry. Market fair_prob 58% is underestimated relative to seasonal metrics.
Key factors
- Freiburg: 2.25 scored / 1.25 conceded per match on average (overall)
- Union: 0.88 scored / 2.38 conceded per match on average (overall)
- Combined team xG 2.73, combined xGA 2.99
- Freiburg played in UECL 05 Nov (3 days rest), Union last match 01 Nov (7 days rest)
- Union lost 0:5 in Cup to Köln 27 Oct, confirming defensive frailty
Risks to the pick
- Head-to-head history: 3 of last 5 matches with total <2.5
- Freiburg may rotate squad after European cup, reducing attacking potential
- Union may play extremely cautiously with extra day of rest
- No confirmed data on injuries/suspensions of key players
Form & standings
SC Freiburg Home
- 05 Nov 2026 away vs Trabzonspor 1:0 (W) · UEFA Conference League
- 31 Oct 2026 away vs FC Augsburg 2:1 (W) · Bundesliga
- 28 Oct 2026 home vs VfL Wolfsburg 3:2 (W) · German Cup
- 25 Oct 2026 home vs Bayern Munich 1:3 (L) · Bundesliga
- 22 Oct 2026 away vs AS Monaco 0:3 (L) · UEFA Conference League
Union Berlin Away
- 01 Nov 2026 home vs FC Cologne 1:1 (D) · Bundesliga
- 27 Oct 2026 away vs FC Cologne 0:5 (L) · German Cup
- 24 Oct 2026 away vs FC Augsburg 1:1 (D) · Bundesliga
- 17 Oct 2026 home vs Borussia Dortmund 0:0 (D) · Bundesliga
- 10 Oct 2026 home vs SV Elversberg 1:0 (W) · Bundesliga
Head-to-head
FCU leads series 3-0-2: 15 Mar 2026 SC Freiburg 0:1 1. FC Union Berlin · 2025-26 German Bundesliga; 01 Nov 2025 1. FC Union Berlin 0:0 SC Freiburg · 2025-26 German Bundesliga; 30 Mar 2025 SC Freiburg 1:2 1. FC Union Berlin · 2024-25 German Bundesliga; 08 Nov 2024 1. FC Union Berlin 0:0 SC Freiburg · 2024-25 German Bundesliga; 18 May 2024 1. FC Union Berlin 2:1 SC Freiburg · 2023-24 German Bundesliga
Scoring trends
Freiburg 2.25 scored / 1.25 conceded / match; Union 0.88 scored / 2.38 conceded / match; combined average ~3.4 goals/match
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | SC Freiburg to win | 1.49 | 1xBet | 1.432 | 65.8% |
| Match result | Draw | 4.9 | Betfair | 4.635 | 20.3% |
| Match result | Union Berlin to win | 8 | Betfair | 6.832 | 13.9% |
| Total | Over 2.5 | 1.73 | Matchbook | 1.627 | 58.0% |
| Total | Under 2.5 | 2.35 | LeoVegas (SE) | 2.25 | 42.0% |
| Total | Over 3 | 2.15 | BetOnline.ag | 2.14 | 45.2% |
| Total | Under 3 | 1.78 | Coolbet | 1.765 | 54.8% |
| h2h_lay | SC Freiburg | 1.5 | Matchbook | 1.495 | 67.5% |
| h2h_lay | Draw | 5 | Betfair | 5 | 20.2% |
| h2h_lay | Union Berlin | 8.2 | Betfair | 8.2 | 12.3% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.