TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 prediction
Kick-off: · Finished
No value found · best option considered · Match result
TSG Hoffenheim to win
Best odds at GTbets · average 1.568 across 23 bookmakers
- Edge
- +0.9%
- Our probability
- 61.5%
- Market probability
- 60.2%
- Confidence
- Low
Hoffenheim favorite at home, but advantage is small; market accurately priced chances, no edge.
Match analysis
Hoffenheim won last two home matches 3:0 (vs Leverkusen in Bundesliga and Lyon in Europa League) and dominates head-to-head (4-1 last 5). Schalke winless in 5 matches (0-4-1), scored only 1 goal in last 3 away games (0:2 Dynamo Dresden, 0:0 Cologne, 1:2 Freiburg) and sits 17th with 6 points. However Hoffenheim only has 2 home wins in sample, and Schalke rested a week. Market gives 60.2% on home win, our conservative estimate ~61.5% — difference <3%, no edge. No injuries/suspensions from open sources.
Key factors
- Hoffenheim home: 2 wins 3:0 in last 2 matches (Bundesliga + Europa League)
- Schalke away: 1 goal in last 3 away matches (0:2, 0:0, 1:2)
- Head-to-head: Hoffenheim 4-1 last 5 (last 2:0 home in April 2023)
- Table: Hoffenheim 14th (9 pts), Schalke 17th (6 pts)
- Market probability home win 60.2%, our model ~61.5% — difference <3%
Risks to the pick
- Hoffenheim played Thursday (Europa League) — possible fatigue/rotation
- No confirmed injury/suspension data
- Schalke's survival motivation could strengthen defense
- Small sample of Hoffenheim home games (only 2 recent)
Form & standings
TSG Hoffenheim Home
- 05 Nov 2026 away vs Crystal Palace 1:1 (D) · UEFA Europa League
- 31 Oct 2026 away vs Werder Bremen 0:2 (L) · Bundesliga
- 28 Oct 2026 away vs Holstein Kiel 1:1 (L) · German Cup
- 25 Oct 2026 home vs Bayer Leverkusen 3:0 (W) · Bundesliga
- 22 Oct 2026 home vs Lyon 3:0 (W) · UEFA Europa League
FC Schalke 04 Away
- 31 Oct 2026 home vs RB Leipzig 0:2 (L) · Bundesliga
- 28 Oct 2026 away vs Dynamo Dresden 0:2 (L) · German Cup
- 24 Oct 2026 away vs FC Cologne 0:0 (D) · Bundesliga
- 17 Oct 2026 home vs Mainz 0:1 (L) · Bundesliga
- 11 Oct 2026 away vs SC Freiburg 1:2 (L) · Bundesliga
Head-to-head
TSG leads series 4-1: 09.04.23 TSG Hoffenheim 2:0 Schalke 04 · 2022-23 German Bundesliga; 18.10.22 TSG Hoffenheim 5:1 Schalke 04 · 2022-23 German DFB Pokal; 14.10.22 Schalke 04 0:3 TSG Hoffenheim · 2022-23 German Bundesliga; 08.05.21 TSG Hoffenheim 4:2 Schalke 04 · 2020-21 German Bundesliga; 09.01.21 Schalke 04 4:0 TSG Hoffenheim · 2020-21 German Bundesliga
Injuries & team news
No reliable data on injuries/suspensions from open sources.
Scoring trends
Hoffenheim home: 3.0 goals/game in last 2 home (Bundesliga + Europa League); Schalke away: 0.33 goals/game in last 3 away. In head-to-head average ~4.2 goals/game (5 matches), but sample is old.
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | TSG Hoffenheim to win | 1.64 | GTbets | 1.568 | 60.2% |
| Match result | Draw | 4.72 | 1xBet | 4.362 | 21.7% |
| Match result | FC Schalke 04 to win | 5.9 | Betfair | 5.236 | 18.1% |
| Total | Over 2.5 | 1.55 | Betsson | 1.533 | 61.9% |
| Total | Under 2.5 | 2.5 | William Hill | 2.49 | 38.1% |
| Total | Over 3 | 1.9 | Pinnacle | 1.88 | 51.5% |
| Total | Under 3 | 2.01 | Pinnacle | 2 | 48.4% |
| Total | Over 3.5 | 2.46 | Matchbook | 2.252 | 41.9% |
| Total | Under 3.5 | 1.68 | Unibet (SE) | 1.622 | 58.1% |
| h2h_lay | TSG Hoffenheim | 1.64 | Matchbook | 1.635 | 61.9% |
| h2h_lay | Draw | 4.7 | Betfair | 4.7 | 21.5% |
| h2h_lay | FC Schalke 04 | 6.2 | Matchbook | 6.1 | 16.6% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.