Calgary Flames vs Philadelphia Flyers prediction
Kick-off: · Finished
Our value pick · Match result
Calgary Flames to win
Best odds at 1xBet · average 2.281 across 23 bookmakers
- Edge
- +28.6%
- Our probability
- 48.0%
- Market probability
- 42.1%
- Confidence
- Medium
Calgary undervalued at home vs Philadelphia: Flyers' poor road form, goaltending and power-play advantages outweigh offensive losses.
Match analysis
Calgary 5-4-0 at home, Philadelphia 1-6-1 on the road. Flames' power play 30% vs Flyers' penalty kill 80% — significant mismatch. Dustin Wolf posted .914 SV% and 2.69 GAA over 7 starts, outperforming both Philly goalies (both below .900). Calgary's missing forwards (Huberdeau, Zary, Honzek) are already baked into the odds — team is 3-1-0 in last 4 home games. Philadelphia lost 4 of last 5, including 2 straight road losses. Market fair_prob 42.1% on Calgary implies only a small home edge; true win probability (incl. OT/SO) closer to 48-50%.
Key factors
- Home/road splits: CGY 5-4-0 home vs PHI 1-6-1 away
- Goaltending edge: Wolf .914 SV% / 2.69 GAA vs Vladar .883 / Vanecek .899
- Special teams: CGY PP 30% vs PHI PK 80%
- Philadelphia 1-6-1 on the road this season
- Calgary 3-1-0 in last 4 home games despite key forward losses
Risks to the pick
- Bahl/Othmann may not play (DTD), further lineup weakening
- Wolf may start instead of Kuli — his .869 SV% would erase the goaltending edge
- Michkov/Zegras capable of explosive offense (6-3 win over Utah shows potential)
- Inter-conference game — lower intensity, potential trap spot for Calgary
Form & standings
Calgary Flames Home
- 07 Nov 2026 home vs Anaheim Ducks 3:5 (L) · NHL
- 05 Nov 2026 away vs Seattle Kraken 1:2 (L) · NHL
- 03 Nov 2026 away vs San Jose Sharks 2:1 (W) · NHL
- 01 Nov 2026 away vs Colorado Avalanche 2:5 (L) · NHL
- 31 Oct 2026 home vs Seattle Kraken 6:2 (W) · NHL
Philadelphia Flyers Away
- 06 Nov 2026 away vs New York Rangers 2:3 (L) · NHL
- 04 Nov 2026 home vs Minnesota Wild 2:4 (L) · NHL
- 01 Nov 2026 home vs Utah Mammoth 6:3 (W) · NHL
- 28 Oct 2026 away vs Washington Capitals 2:5 (L) · NHL
- 27 Oct 2026 home vs Columbus Blue Jackets 3:4 (L) · NHL
Head-to-head
First meeting this season (inter-conference)
Injuries & team news
CGY: Huberdeau (IR, hip), Zary (OUT, knee), Honzek (IR, lower body), Bahl (DTD, lower body), Othmann (DTD, upper body). PHI: Ristolainen (IR, hand), Grebenkin (IR, back) | ESPN: Calgary Flames: Kevin Bahl (D) — Day-To-Day, Lower Body, expected return 2026-11-08; Brennan Othmann (LW) — Day-To-Day, Upper Body, expected return 2026-11-08; Jonathan Huberdeau (LW) — Injured Reserve, Hip, expected return 2026-11-21; Connor Zary (C) — Out, Knee, expected return 2026-11-28; Samuel Honzek (LW) — Injured Reserve, Lower Body, expected return 2026-11-15 | Philadelphia Flyers: Rasmus Ristolainen (D) — Injured Reserve, Hand, expected return 2026-11-11; Nikita Grebenkin (RW) — Injured Reserve, Back, expected return 2027-02-13
Scoring trends
CGY last 5: avg 5.8 total goals (3.53 GAA), PHI last 5: avg 6.8 total goals (3.33 GAA). Combined season avg 4.64 goals, but defensive metrics point to 5.5+
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Calgary Flames to win | 2.68 | 1xBet | 2.281 | 42.1% |
| Match result | Draw | 4.3 | Unibet (SE) | 4.07 | 23.0% |
| Match result | Philadelphia Flyers to win | 2.4 | 1xBet | 2.096 | 45.9% |
| Total | Over 5.5 | 1.88 | 1xBet | 1.826 | 52.3% |
| Total | Under 5.5 | 2.06 | Matchbook | 1.999 | 47.7% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.