Chicago Bulls vs Philadelphia 76ers prediction
Kick-off: · Finished
No value found · best option considered · Total
Under 237.5
Best odds at Matchbook · average 1.93 across 2 bookmakers
- Edge
- +1.5%
- Our probability
- 51.0%
- Market probability
- 49.3%
- Confidence
- Low
Under 237.5 — arguments weakened: only 3 PHI away games with low total, Embiid status unclear, marginal edge threshold not met
Match analysis
Philadelphia on the road in last 3 games posted totals 214, 218, 213 (avg 215), but 4th game (191) was home vs NY. Embiid GTD (foot) — in last game @CLE (95 points) his status unknown, cannot assert he played without him. Bulls missing 3 frontcourt players (Smith GTD, Claxton GTD, Collins Out), limiting second chances, but their offense weak (111.6 PPG). H2H 233 points. Market 237.5/238.5 reflects CHI defense reputation, but no evidence base for 52% model — 51% sufficient, edge <3%.
Key factors
- PHI last 3 away games: totals 214, 218, 213 (all Under)
- Joel Embiid GTD (foot) — impact on offense not confirmed by facts
- CHI without Smith (GTD), Claxton (GTD), Collins (Out) — paint offense weakens
- H2H 126:107 (233 points) in Philadelphia 03 Nov
- Fair_prob Under 237.5 = 49.3%; at model 51% edge ~1.5% at odds 1.99
Risks to the pick
- Embiid plays and dominates vs weakened CHI defense
- Bulls increase pace at home vs weak defense
- PHI perimeter shooters (Maxey, Brown, Simmons) convert open shots
- Late-game fouls in blowout push total
Form & standings
Chicago Bulls Home
- 05 Nov 2026 away vs New York Knicks 105:135 (L) · NBA
- 03 Nov 2026 away vs Philadelphia 76ers 107:126 (L) · NBA
- 30 Oct 2026 away vs Boston Celtics 111:125 (L) · NBA
- 29 Oct 2026 home vs New York Knicks 127:133 (L) · NBA
- 26 Oct 2026 away vs Boston Celtics 99:134 (L) · NBA
Philadelphia 76ers Away
- 07 Nov 2026 away vs Cleveland Cavaliers 95:119 (L) · NBA
- 05 Nov 2026 away vs Detroit Pistons 112:106 (W) · NBA
- 03 Nov 2026 home vs Chicago Bulls 126:107 (W) · NBA
- 31 Oct 2026 away vs Charlotte Hornets 109:104 (W) · NBA
- 30 Oct 2026 home vs New York Knicks 98:93 (W) · NBA
Head-to-head
PHI leads series 1-0: 03 Nov 2026 Philadelphia 76ers 126:107 Chicago Bulls
Injuries & team news
CHI: Jalen Smith GTD (finger), Nic Claxton GTD (biceps), Zach Collins Out (illness), Tobe Awaka GTD (knee). PHI: Joel Embiid GTD (foot), Adem Bona Out (back), Dominick Barlow Out (back), Ariel Hukporti Out (achilles) | ESPN: Chicago Bulls: Tobe Awaka (F) — Day-To-Day, Knee, expected return 2026-11-08; Jalen Smith (F) — Day-To-Day, Finger, expected return 2026-11-08; Nic Claxton (C) — Out, Hamstring, expected return 2026-11-08; Zach Collins (F) — Out, Illness, expected return 2026-11-11 | Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid (C) — Day-To-Day, Foot, expected return 2026-11-08; Adem Bona (C) — Out, Back, expected return 2026-11-10; Dominick Barlow (F) — Out, Back, expected return 2026-11-18; Ariel Hukporti (C) — Out, Achilles, expected return 2027-10-01
Scoring trends
CHI: 111.6 PPG / 129.6 PAPG; last 5 totals: 240, 233, 236, 260, 233 (avg 240.4). PHI: 109.4 PPG / 106.6 PAPG; last 5 totals: 214, 218, 233, 213, 191 (avg 213.8)
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Chicago Bulls to win | 4.5 | Betfair | 4.071 | 23.3% |
| Match result | Philadelphia 76ers to win | 1.27 | Betfair | 1.234 | 76.7% |
| Total | Over 237.5 | 1.92 | Matchbook | 1.875 | 50.7% |
| Total | Under 237.5 | 1.99 | Matchbook | 1.93 | 49.3% |
| Total | Over 238 | 1.94 | Pinnacle | 1.918 | 50.1% |
| Total | Under 238 | 1.94 | Pinnacle | 1.922 | 49.9% |
| Total | Over 238.5 | 1.93 | 1xBet | 1.87 | 50.1% |
| Total | Under 238.5 | 1.93 | 1xBet | 1.88 | 49.9% |
| h2h_lay | Chicago Bulls | 4.9 | Matchbook | 4.85 | 21.1% |
| h2h_lay | Philadelphia 76ers | 1.3 | Matchbook | 1.295 | 78.9% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.