Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers prediction
Kick-off:
Our value pick · Match result
Dallas Mavericks to win
Best odds at Betfair · average 1.553 across 22 bookmakers
- Edge
- +11.3%
- Our probability
- 70.0%
- Market probability
- 60.5%
- Confidence
- Medium
Dallas Mavericks should win at home against Indiana Pacers without Haliburton and possibly McConnell.
Match analysis
Indiana loses offensive leader Tyrese Haliburton (21.8 PPG, 9.5 APG over 4 games) — Out until Nov 13. Backup PG T.J. McConnell — GTD (hamstring). Without them, Pacers offense (110.3 PPG) will drop: in last 5 games they scored 102, 107, 104, 90, 125 points, and only the Memphis win looks convincing. Dallas in good home form (4-2 at home, 3 wins in last 5), defense allows 109.1 PPG. In head-to-head Oct 23, Mavericks already beat Pacers 121:105 in Indianapolis. ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Dallas 73.7% chance. Market prices home win at 60.5% (fair_prob), creating ~11% edge at odds 1.59.
Key factors
- Haliburton Out — Indiana's primary playmaker and second scorer (21.8 PPG, 9.5 APG)
- McConnell GTD — no reliable backup at point guard
- Dallas 4-2 at home, 3 wins in last 5 (incl. 130:93 vs BKN)
- H2H: Dallas won 121:105 in Indianapolis on Oct 23
- Indiana 1-4 in last 5, only win came in Memphis
- ESPN BPI: 73.7% Dallas vs 26.3% Indiana
Risks to the pick
- McConnell could play (GTD) and partially offset Haliburton's absence
- Siakam and Nesmith may take on more shot volume
- Dallas without Lively (C) — weaker rim protection, Zubac could dominate (5 games, 8.6 RPG)
- Back-to-back for Dallas (played Nov 9 vs BKN), fatigue possible
Form & standings
Dallas Mavericks Home
- 09 Nov 2026 home vs Brooklyn Nets 130:93 (W) · NBA
- 07 Nov 2026 home vs Utah Jazz 112:100 (W) · NBA
- 05 Nov 2026 away vs San Antonio Spurs 111:112 (L) · NBA
- 03 Nov 2026 home vs Sacramento Kings 100:115 (L) · NBA
- 31 Oct 2026 home vs Houston Rockets 116:111 (W) · NBA
Indiana Pacers Away
- 07 Nov 2026 home vs Denver Nuggets 102:114 (L) · NBA
- 05 Nov 2026 away vs Memphis Grizzlies 107:103 (W) · NBA
- 03 Nov 2026 home vs Atlanta Hawks 104:108 (L) · NBA
- 01 Nov 2026 home vs Brooklyn Nets 90:98 (L) · NBA
- 31 Oct 2026 away vs Miami Heat 125:145 (L) · NBA
Head-to-head
DAL leads series 1-0: 23 Oct 2026 Indiana Pacers 105:121 Dallas Mavericks
Injuries & team news
DAL: Lively II (C) Out, Biberovic (F) Out, de Larrea (F) Out. IND: Haliburton (G) Out, McConnell (G) GTD, Furphy (G) Out, Sheppard (G) Out | ESPN: Dallas Mavericks: Sergio de Larrea (F) — Out, Knee, expected return 2026-11-12; Tarik Biberovic (F) — Out, Heel, expected return 2026-11-12; Dereck Lively II (C) — Out, Foot, expected return 2026-11-12 | Indiana Pacers: T.J. McConnell (G) — Day-To-Day, Hamstring, expected return 2026-11-09; Tyrese Haliburton (G) — Out, Hamstring, expected return 2026-11-13; Johnny Furphy (G) — Out, Knee, expected return 2027-01-02; Ben Sheppard (G) — Out, Knee, expected return 2027-01-02
Scoring trends
DAL home avg total ~223 (7 games), IND road avg total ~236 (5 games, but 4 of 5 with Haliburton). Without Haliburton, Indiana's pace and scoring should drop.
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Dallas Mavericks to win | 1.59 | Betfair | 1.553 | 60.5% |
| Match result | Indiana Pacers to win | 2.54 | Betfair | 2.382 | 39.5% |
| Total | Over 221.5 | 1.92 | Unibet (NL) | 1.855 | 50.2% |
| Total | Under 221.5 | 1.97 | Matchbook | 1.872 | 49.8% |
| Total | Over 222.5 | 1.94 | 1xBet | 1.894 | 49.7% |
| Total | Under 222.5 | 1.92 | GTbets | 1.874 | 50.3% |
| h2h_lay | Dallas Mavericks | 1.72 | Matchbook | 1.685 | 61.6% |
| h2h_lay | Indiana Pacers | 2.7 | Betfair | 2.7 | 38.4% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.