Indiana Pacers vs Denver Nuggets prediction
Kick-off: · Finished
No value found · best option considered · Total
Over 229.5
Best odds at Matchbook · average 1.905 across 13 bookmakers
- Edge
- +1.5%
- Our probability
- 51.0%
- Market probability
- 49.8%
- Confidence
- Low
Over 229.5 points: Denver with elite offense vs devastated Indiana backcourt in Mexico, but edge is negligible without confirmed altitude factor.
Match analysis
1) Denver 4-3 (9th West), Indiana 3-6 (11th East) per ESPN. 2) Indiana without Haliburton (hamstring, out until 13 Nov 2026), Sheppard (knee, out until 02 Jan 2027), Furphy (knee, out until 02 Jan 2027) — confirmed by ESPN. Preview adds McConnell (hamstring, out) and Oubre Jr (day-to-day, calf). 3) Denver: Strawther out (knee, until 29 Nov 2026), DeRozan day-to-day (back), Jones day-to-day (hamstring). 4) Season averages: Denver 115.4 scored / 114.7 allowed, Indiana 111.2 / 114.2. 5) Last 5 totals: Denver 237, 228, 247, 195, 248 (avg 231), Indiana 210, 212, 188, 270, 223 (avg 220.6). 6) Market: total 229.5, fair_prob ~49.8% (O7), best odds 1.99. 7) ESPN Matchup Predictor: Denver 77.1%. Arguments for over: Denver offense (Jokic 23.4+9.7+9.3, Murray 25.4) vs weak Indiana perimeter defense without key guards. Risks: no data on Mexico City altitude impact, possible pace slowdown by Indiana, DeRozan status.
Key factors
- Indiana without Haliburton, Sheppard, Furphy, McConnell (out), Oubre day-to-day — backcourt devastated (ESPN game page + preview)
- Denver: Jokic 23.4 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 9.3 APG; Murray 25.4 PPG — elite duo (ESPN team stats)
- Season averages: DEN 115.4/114.7, IND 111.2/114.2 (ESPN game page)
- Last 5 totals: DEN avg 231 (3/5 >229.5), IND avg 220.6 (ESPN game page scores)
- Match in Mexico City (Arena CDMX) — neutral court, altitude 2240 m (ESPN game page), but quantitative impact on total absent in tools
Risks to the pick
- No confirmed data on Mexico City altitude impact on NBA totals
- DeRozan (10.7 PPG) may not play (day-to-day, back) — reduces Denver offense
- Indiana may deliberately slow pace due to altitude fatigue and lack of rotation
- Small sample of last 5 games, high variability (Indiana 188 and 270 in last 5)
Form & standings
Indiana Pacers Home
- 05 Nov 2026 away vs Memphis Grizzlies 107:103 (W) · NBA
- 03 Nov 2026 home vs Atlanta Hawks 104:108 (L) · NBA
- 01 Nov 2026 home vs Brooklyn Nets 90:98 (L) · NBA
- 31 Oct 2026 away vs Miami Heat 125:145 (L) · NBA
- 28 Oct 2026 home vs Philadelphia 76ers 109:114 (L) · NBA
Denver Nuggets Away
- 05 Nov 2026 home vs Toronto Raptors 128:109 (W) · NBA
- 03 Nov 2026 home vs Portland Trail Blazers 110:118 (L) · NBA
- 31 Oct 2026 away vs Phoenix Suns 127:120 (W) · NBA
- 29 Oct 2026 away vs New Orleans Pelicans 104:91 (W) · NBA
- 27 Oct 2026 home vs Golden State Warriors 114:134 (L) · NBA
Injuries & team news
IND: Haliburton Out (hamstring, 13 Nov 2026), Sheppard Out (knee, 02 Jan 2027), Furphy Out (knee, 02 Jan 2027), McConnell Out (hamstring), Oubre Jr Day-to-day (calf). DEN: Strawther Out (knee, 29 Nov 2026), DeRozan Day-to-day (back), Jones Day-to-day (hamstring) | ESPN: Indiana Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton (G) — Out, Hamstring, expected return 2026-11-13; Johnny Furphy (G) — Out, Knee, expected return 2027-01-02; Ben Sheppard (G) — Out, Knee, expected return 2027-01-02 | Denver Nuggets: Julian Strawther (G) — Out, Knee, expected return 2026-11-29
Scoring trends
Season: IND 111.2 scored / 114.2 allowed, DEN 115.4 / 114.7. Last 5: IND totals 210, 212, 188, 270, 223 (avg 220.6); DEN totals 237, 228, 247, 195, 248 (avg 231). Market: 228.5-229.5
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Indiana Pacers to win | 3.85 | Betfair | 3.483 | 27.3% |
| Match result | Denver Nuggets to win | 1.34 | Betfair | 1.304 | 72.7% |
| Total | Over 228.5 | 1.88 | Unibet (NL) | 1.79 | 50.5% |
| Total | Under 228.5 | 1.92 | Unibet (NL) | 1.83 | 49.5% |
| Total | Over 229 | 1.91 | BetOnline.ag | 1.9 | 50.6% |
| Total | Under 229 | 2.02 | Pinnacle | 1.947 | 49.4% |
| Total | Over 229.5 | 1.99 | Matchbook | 1.905 | 49.8% |
| Total | Under 229.5 | 1.97 | Matchbook | 1.888 | 50.2% |
| h2h_lay | Indiana Pacers | 4 | Matchbook | 3.975 | 25.5% |
| h2h_lay | Denver Nuggets | 1.37 | Matchbook | 1.36 | 74.5% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.