Los Angeles Clippers vs New Orleans Pelicans prediction
Kick-off: · Finished
Our value pick · Match result
New Orleans Pelicans to win
Best odds at Betfair · average 1.805 across 25 bookmakers
- Edge
- +4.0%
- Our probability
- 55.0%
- Market probability
- 52.5%
- Confidence
- Medium
Pelicans ML has an edge: Clippers in crisis (5 straight losses, 1-7, without Ingram and Beal), NO 4-1 over last 5 and better on offense.
Match analysis
Clippers have lost 5 straight, are 1-7 (1-3 home) and lose Ingram (Achilles) and Beal (knee, until Nov 29). Pelicans won 4 of 5, including OT win at Memphis and blowouts over Atlanta and Sacramento. Season stats: NO 120.2 PPG (48.4% FG) vs 109.1 PPG (45.3% FG) for LAC. Clippers lead in turnovers (19.4 vs 16.3). ESPN Matchup Predictor gives NO 51.4%. Market prices NO at 52.5% (odds 1.89), our model 55%, edge ~4%.
Key factors
- Clippers: 5 straight losses, 1-7 overall, 1-3 home
- Clippers without Ingram (Out, Achilles) and Beal (Out, Knee, until Nov 29), also Jackson and Niederhauser
- Pelicans: 4-1 over last 5, including OT win at Memphis
- NO better on offense: 120.2 PPG vs 109.1, 48.4% FG vs 45.3%
- Clippers turn over more: 19.4 vs 16.3 for NO
- Market: NO 52.5% (1.89), our model 55% → edge ~4%
Risks to the pick
- Clippers may play desperately at home
- Pelicans 1-2 away, Missi (Out, Knee) expected 09 Nov, but form unknown
- Darius Garland for Clippers in form (20.9 PPG, 6.6 APG) could keep game close
- ESPN total 227.5 below season averages
Form & standings
Los Angeles Clippers Home
- 05 Nov 2026 home vs Miami Heat 116:117 (L) · NBA
- 03 Nov 2026 home vs Toronto Raptors 118:125 (L) · NBA
- 02 Nov 2026 away vs Golden State Warriors 112:124 (L) · NBA
- 31 Oct 2026 away vs Minnesota Timberwolves 101:127 (L) · NBA
- 29 Oct 2026 home vs Los Angeles Lakers 87:103 (L) · NBA
New Orleans Pelicans Away
- 07 Nov 2026 home vs Minnesota Timberwolves 109:115 (L) · NBA
- 05 Nov 2026 home vs Utah Jazz 120:113 (W) · NBA
- 03 Nov 2026 away vs Memphis Grizzlies 135:134 (W) · NBA
- 31 Oct 2026 home vs Atlanta Hawks 121:99 (W) · NBA
- 30 Oct 2026 home vs Sacramento Kings 132:120 (W) · NBA
Head-to-head
First head-to-head of season (0-0), next on 28 Nov and 14 Feb
Injuries & team news
LAC: Ingram (Out, Achilles, 10 Nov), Beal (Out, Knee, 29 Nov), Jackson (Out, Groin, 10 Nov), Niederhauser (Out, Foot, 10 Nov), Miller (Out, Shoulder, 02 Mar). NO: Missi (Out, Knee, 09 Nov) | ESPN: LA Clippers: Brandon Ingram (F) — Out, Achilles, expected return 2026-11-10; Isaiah Jackson (F) — Out, Groin, expected return 2026-11-10; Yanic Konan Niederhauser (C) — Out, Foot, expected return 2026-11-10; Bradley Beal (G) — Out, Knee, expected return 2026-11-29; Jordan Miller (G) — Out, Shoulder, expected return 2027-03-02 | New Orleans Pelicans: Yves Missi (C) — Out, Knee, expected return 2026-11-09
Scoring trends
LAC avg total last 5: 226.0; NO: 239.6; combined season avg: ~231.9; market 227.5–229.5
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Los Angeles Clippers to win | 2.08 | Pinnacle | 1.992 | 47.5% |
| Match result | New Orleans Pelicans to win | 1.89 | Betfair | 1.805 | 52.5% |
| Total | Over 228.5 | 1.99 | Matchbook | 1.896 | 50.1% |
| Total | Under 228.5 | 1.95 | 1xBet | 1.903 | 49.9% |
| Total | Over 229 | 1.93 | Coolbet | 1.914 | 50.0% |
| Total | Under 229 | 1.91 | BetOnline.ag | 1.91 | 50.0% |
| Total | Over 229.5 | 1.9 | Betsson | 1.9 | 49.5% |
| Total | Under 229.5 | 1.86 | Betsson | 1.86 | 50.5% |
| h2h_lay | Los Angeles Clippers | 2.14 | Matchbook | 2.13 | 47.5% |
| h2h_lay | New Orleans Pelicans | 1.95 | Matchbook | 1.93 | 52.5% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.