Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction

Match analysis

Minnesota's Jesper Wallstedt has been outstanding (1.99 GAA, .922 SV% in 16 starts) while Vasilevskiy is well below his career norms (2.75 GAA, .887 SV%). The Wild are 5-0-1 at home with a +7 goal differential, while the Lightning are just 2-3-2 on the road. Minnesota has won 4 straight and 7 of 8, allowing only 1.9 goals/game in their last 10. Tampa has lost 3 of 5 (two in OT/SO) and allows 3.1 goals/game in their last 10. The market prices Tampa as a 49% favorite despite these splits, likely overvaluing Tampa's offensive names (Kucherov, Hagel) and undervaluing Minnesota's defensive structure and goaltending edge. Minnesota's key defensive injuries (Spurgeon, Faber) are already baked into Wallstedt's excellent numbers. At 2.9 odds, Minnesota offers significant value.

Key factors

• Wallstedt .922 SV% / 1.99 GAA vs Vasilevskiy .887 SV% / 2.75 GAA — massive goaltending advantage Minnesota
• Minnesota 5-0-1 home (GF 3.33, GA 2.17) vs Tampa 2-3-2 away (GF 3.73, GA 3.00)
• Minnesota last 10: 7-1-2, allowing 1.9 GPG; Tampa last 10: 6-2-2, allowing 3.1 GPG
• Market fair_prob: Tampa 49.1%, Minnesota 39.3% — undervalues home dominance and goaltending gap

Risks to the pick

• Tampa's top-6 offense (Kucherov, Hagel, Guentzel, Point) can explode for 4+ goals any night
• Minnesota missing Spurgeon, Faber, both Folignos on defense — could struggle vs Tampa's speed
• Vasilevskiy capable of vintage performance; small sample (12 starts) for Wallstedt
• Back-to-back for Tampa (played Nov 6 vs CHI) but Minnesota also played Nov 7 vs SJ

Form & standings

Head-to-head

TB leads series 1-0: 08 Oct 2026 Tampa Bay Lightning 3:2 Minnesota Wild

Injuries & team news

MIN: Gustavsson (IR, hip), Spurgeon (IR, lower body), Faber (IR, skull), McCarron (D2D), N.Foligno (upper body), M.Foligno (lower body); TB: Gourde (IR, hip) | ESPN: Minnesota Wild: Michael McCarron (C) — Day-To-Day, Undisclosed, expected return 2026-11-07; Filip Gustavsson (G) — Injured Reserve, Hip, expected return 2026-11-19; Jared Spurgeon (D) — Injured Reserve, Lower Body, expected return 2026-11-10; Brock Faber (D) — Injured Reserve, Skull, expected return 2026-11-10 | Tampa Bay Lightning: Yanni Gourde (C) — Injured Reserve, Hip, expected return 2026-11-12

Scoring trends

MIN avg 5.5 total goals/game (3.33 GF, 2.17 GA); TB avg 6.73 total goals/game (3.73 GF, 3.00 GA); line 6.5

Odds comparison

Odds at the time of analysis (Sat, 7 Nov 2026 · 22:19 UTC). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.

Sources