Oklahoma City Thunder vs Washington Wizards prediction
Kick-off: · Finished
Our value pick · Total
Under 222.5
Best odds at Matchbook · average 1.882 across 17 bookmakers
- Edge
- +3.8%
- Our probability
- 53.5%
- Market probability
- 50.1%
- Confidence
- Medium
Under 222.5 — both teams on second night of back-to-back, OKC without Holmgren and Jalen Williams, Wizards may be without Davis.
Match analysis
Both teams played Nov 7 (OKC @MEM, WSH @ATL) and meet Nov 8 — classic back-to-back. OKC loses two key players: Holmgren (Out, knee) and Jalen Williams (Out, leg). WSH's Anthony Davis is GTD (ankle). OKC's average total over last 5 games — 225.4 (3 Over / 2 Under vs 222.5), WSH — 219.8 (3 Over / 2 Under). ESPN opened total 220.5, market — 222.5. Fatigue, personnel losses, and ESPN's lower line create an edge for Under.
Key factors
- Both teams on back-to-back (played Nov 7, game Nov 8)
- OKC without Holmgren (Out, knee) and Jalen Williams (Out, leg)
- WSH: Anthony Davis GTD (ankle)
- OKC 4-0 home, WSH 2-3 away (allow 112.3 PPG)
- ESPN Matchup Predictor: 84.1% OKC, but opening total 220.5 below market 222.5
Risks to the pick
- Davis may play and score 30+ points
- OKC may increase pace via SGA and Mitchell
- WSH just scored 132 points in Atlanta
- Market may have already priced back-to-back into 222.5 line
Form & standings
Oklahoma City Thunder Home
- 07 Nov 2026 away vs Memphis Grizzlies 128:97 (W) · NBA
- 05 Nov 2026 home vs Cleveland Cavaliers 124:116 (W) · NBA
- 03 Nov 2026 away vs Cleveland Cavaliers 117:112 (W) · NBA
- 01 Nov 2026 away vs Houston Rockets 98:119 (L) · NBA
- 29 Oct 2026 away vs Dallas Mavericks 96:120 (L) · NBA
Washington Wizards Away
- 07 Nov 2026 away vs Atlanta Hawks 132:139 (L) · NBA
- 05 Nov 2026 home vs Atlanta Hawks 105:120 (L) · NBA
- 03 Nov 2026 away vs Orlando Magic 103:94 (W) · NBA
- 30 Oct 2026 home vs Charlotte Hornets 95:79 (W) · NBA
- 28 Oct 2026 away vs Cleveland Cavaliers 111:121 (L) · NBA
Injuries & team news
OKC: Holmgren (Out, knee), Jalen Williams (Out, leg), Wallace (Out, shoulder), Jaylin Williams (Out, back), Sorber (Out, knee). WSH: Davis (GTD, ankle), Beekman (Out, shoulder), Vukcevic (Out, hip), Champagnie (Out, foot), Watkins (Out, knee) | ESPN: Oklahoma City Thunder: Jaylin Williams (F) — Out, Back, expected return 2026-11-10; Thomas Sorber (C) — Out, Knee, expected return 2026-11-13; Cason Wallace (G) — Out, Shoulder, expected return 2027-03-02; Chet Holmgren (C) — Out, Knee, expected return 2027-01-02; Jalen Williams (G) — Out, Leg, expected return 2027-03-02 | Washington Wizards: Anthony Davis (F) — Day-To-Day, Ankle, expected return 2026-11-07; Reece Beekman (G) — Out, Shoulder, expected return 2026-12-03; Tristan Vukcevic (F) — Out, Hip, expected return 2026-11-09; Justin Champagnie (F) — Out, Foot, expected return 2027-02-25; Jamir Watkins (G) — Out, Knee, expected return 2027-04-02
Scoring trends
OKC average total last 5: 225.4 (3 Over / 2 Under vs 222.5); WSH: 219.8 (3 Over / 2 Under). Both teams on back-to-back.
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Oklahoma City Thunder to win | 1.19 | Matchbook | 1.16 | 81.7% |
| Match result | Washington Wizards to win | 6 | Betfair | 5.206 | 18.3% |
| Total | Over 222.5 | 1.98 | Matchbook | 1.891 | 49.9% |
| Total | Under 222.5 | 1.94 | Matchbook | 1.882 | 50.1% |
| h2h_lay | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1.22 | Matchbook | 1.21 | 83.9% |
| h2h_lay | Washington Wizards | 6.4 | Matchbook | 6.3 | 16.1% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.