Ottawa Senators vs Utah Mammoth prediction
Kick-off: · Finished
Our value pick · Total
Over 6.5
Best odds at Unibet (NL) · average 1.962 across 14 bookmakers
- Edge
- +21.0%
- Our probability
- 55.0%
- Market probability
- 48.9%
- Confidence
- Medium
Both teams have weak goaltending and high scoring — total 6.5 is undervalued by the market.
Match analysis
Ottawa without Ullmark (.945 SV%) is forced to play with Ersson (.880) or Johansson (.848) — a significant drop in goaltending quality. Utah is also weak in net (team .869 SV%), but has a powerful power play (38.3%) against Ottawa's 73.8% PK (23rd in league). Both teams allow a lot: Ottawa 3.06 G/G (14th), Utah 3.47 G/G. Average total of last 5 games each — 6.8 goals. Season averages: Ottawa 6.12, Utah 7.06. With Ottawa's backup goalies and Utah's high scoring, true probability of Over 6.5 is above market's 48.9%.
Key factors
- Ottawa without Ullmark: backup goalies .880/.848 SV% vs .945 for starter
- Utah: 38.3% PP vs Ottawa's 73.8% PK (23rd in league)
- Both teams allow a lot: Ottawa 3.06 G/G (14th), Utah 3.47 G/G
- Average total of last 5 games for each team — 6.8 goals
Risks to the pick
- Utah playing 2nd game in 2 nights (OT loss in Montreal yesterday)
- Ottawa 5-2-0 at home, just beat Buffalo 2:1 — low-scoring game possible
- Utah goalie Vegmelka/Kossa could play above their heads
Form & standings
Ottawa Senators Home
- 05 Nov 2026 away vs Buffalo Sabres 2:1 (W) · NHL
- 02 Nov 2026 away vs Anaheim Ducks 3:6 (L) · NHL
- 31 Oct 2026 away vs San Jose Sharks 5:1 (W) · NHL
- 30 Oct 2026 away vs Los Angeles Kings 5:6 (L) · NHL
- 28 Oct 2026 away vs Vegas Golden Knights 1:4 (L) · NHL
Utah Mammoth Away
- 06 Nov 2026 away vs Montreal Canadiens 4:5 (L) · NHL
- 04 Nov 2026 away vs Toronto Maple Leafs 3:2 (W) · NHL
- 01 Nov 2026 away vs Philadelphia Flyers 3:6 (L) · NHL
- 29 Oct 2026 away vs Pittsburgh Penguins 4:3 (W) · NHL
- 28 Oct 2026 home vs Minnesota Wild 1:3 (L) · NHL
Head-to-head
First meeting in 2026-27 season
Injuries & team news
OTT: Ullmark (IR, lower body), Greig (OUT), Burakovsky/Foegele/Eklund (IR), Kleven (DTD, illness). UTA: Yamamoto (IR), Schmidt (DTD), Marino (IR), Lamoureux (IR) | ESPN: Ottawa Senators: Ridly Greig (C) — Out, Lower Body, expected return 2026-11-10; Linus Ullmark (G) — Injured Reserve, Lower Body, expected return 2026-11-10; Andre Burakovsky (LW) — Injured Reserve, Lower Body, expected return 2026-11-27; Warren Foegele (LW) — Injured Reserve, Knee, expected return 2026-11-25; William Eklund (LW) — Injured Reserve, Ankle, expected return 2027-01-05 | Utah Mammoth: Kailer Yamamoto (RW) — Injured Reserve, Upper Body, expected return 2026-11-11; Nate Schmidt (D) — Day-To-Day, Upper Body, expected return 2026-11-07; John Marino (D) — Injured Reserve, Upper Body, expected return 2026-11-14; Maveric Lamoureux (D) — Injured Reserve, Shoulder, expected return 2027-02-12
Scoring trends
OTT: 3.06 GF/3.06 GA; UTA: 3.59 GF/3.47 GA. Last 10: OTT 3.2/2.8, UTA 3.4/3.8
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ottawa Senators to win | 2.63 | LeoVegas (SE) | 2.271 | 42.3% |
| Match result | Draw | 4.4 | LeoVegas (SE) | 4.191 | 22.3% |
| Match result | Utah Mammoth to win | 2.38 | 1xBet | 2.083 | 46.1% |
| Total | Over 6.5 | 2.2 | Unibet (NL) | 1.962 | 48.9% |
| Total | Under 6.5 | 2.02 | Matchbook | 1.88 | 51.1% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.