Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs prediction
Kick-off: · Finished
No value found · best option considered · Match result
Portland Trail Blazers to win
Best odds at Betfair · average 2.678 across 25 bookmakers
- Edge
- +5.8%
- Our probability
- 37.0%
- Market probability
- 35.5%
- Confidence
- Low
Market fairly assesses chances; Spurs favorites, but Blazers at home could surprise without Morant.
Match analysis
Spurs on a 5-game win streak (3-0 away), elite defense (108.7 allowed per season), Wembanyama in MVP form (52 points vs Dallas Nov 5). Blazers without Morant (15.8 PPG, 5.5 APG) and Williams, but Lillard (20.4 PPG), Avdija (23.3 PPG, 7.0 APG) and Clingan (12.6 PPG, 10.6 RPG) playing well. Both teams played Nov 7 — back-to-back. ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Spurs 60.5% vs market 64.5% — 4 pp discrepancy favoring Blazers, but model may underestimate Morant's absence. Market totals 229-230.5 close to averages: Blazers season 233.8, last 5 — 230.0; Spurs season 226.4, last 5 — 226.4. Bet on Blazers ML (O1) gives theoretical edge ~5.8% at 37% assessment, but confidence low due to small sample and key injuries.
Key factors
- Spurs: 7-2, 3-0 away, 5 straight wins, league's best defense (108.7), Wembanyama 29.1/12.6/4.2
- Blazers: 6-2, 1-1 home, without Morant (15.8 PPG, 5.5 APG) and Williams, Lillard/Avdija/Clingan in form
- Both teams played Nov 7 — back-to-back neutralizes rest advantage
- ESPN Predictor: Spurs 60.5% vs market 64.5% — 4 pp discrepancy
- Last 5 totals: Blazers 230.0, Spurs 226.4, market 229-230.5
Risks to the pick
- Morant's absence critical for Blazers offense vs Spurs' elite defense
- Wembanyama may continue dominance after 52 points
- Small sample size (8-9 games) makes stats noisy
- Market may factor hidden elements (Spurs fatigue after emotional win, Blazers home motivation)
Form & standings
Portland Trail Blazers Home
- 07 Nov 2026 away vs Los Angeles Lakers 118:124 (L) · NBA
- 05 Nov 2026 away vs Phoenix Suns 132:119 (W) · NBA
- 03 Nov 2026 away vs Denver Nuggets 118:110 (W) · NBA
- 31 Oct 2026 away vs Utah Jazz 112:90 (W) · NBA
- 30 Oct 2026 home vs Memphis Grizzlies 103:124 (L) · NBA
San Antonio Spurs Away
- 07 Nov 2026 away vs Sacramento Kings 124:109 (W) · NBA
- 05 Nov 2026 home vs Dallas Mavericks 112:111 (W) · NBA
- 03 Nov 2026 home vs Utah Jazz 119:97 (W) · NBA
- 01 Nov 2026 home vs Minnesota Timberwolves 121:111 (W) · NBA
- 29 Oct 2026 away vs Utah Jazz 117:111 (W) · NBA
Head-to-head
First meeting of season (0-0)
Injuries & team news
Blazers: Morant (hamstring, out until 01 Dec), R. Williams (rest, out until 10 Nov), Krejci (ankle), Sharpe (knee). Spurs: Harris (calf, out until 09 Nov), Quaintance (knee) | ESPN: Portland Trail Blazers: Robert Williams III (C) — Out, Rest, expected return 2026-11-10; Vit Krejci (G) — Out, Ankle, expected return 2027-01-02; Ja Morant (G) — Out, Hamstring, expected return 2026-12-01; Shaedon Sharpe (G) — Out, Knee, expected return 2027-03-02 | San Antonio Spurs: Tobias Harris (F) — Out, Calf, expected return 2026-11-09; Jayden Quaintance (F) — Out, Knee, expected return 2026-12-03
Scoring trends
Blazers: 121.4 scored / 112.4 allowed (last 5: 230.0 avg total). Spurs: 117.7 / 108.7 (last 5: 226.4). Market: 229-230.5
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Portland Trail Blazers to win | 2.86 | Betfair | 2.678 | 35.5% |
| Match result | San Antonio Spurs to win | 1.52 | Winamax (DE) | 1.474 | 64.5% |
| Total | Over 229 | 1.91 | MyBookie.ag | 1.89 | 50.5% |
| Total | Under 229 | 1.95 | BetOnline.ag | 1.93 | 49.5% |
| Total | Over 229.5 | 1.95 | Matchbook | 1.906 | 49.7% |
| Total | Under 229.5 | 1.95 | Matchbook | 1.881 | 50.3% |
| Total | Over 230.5 | 1.93 | Unibet (NL) | 1.835 | 49.4% |
| Total | Under 230.5 | 1.88 | Unibet (NL) | 1.79 | 50.6% |
| h2h_lay | Portland Trail Blazers | 2.94 | Matchbook | 2.94 | 34.5% |
| h2h_lay | San Antonio Spurs | 1.56 | Matchbook | 1.55 | 65.5% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.