Toronto Maple Leafs vs New Jersey Devils prediction
Kick-off: · Finished
No value found · best option considered · Total
Over 6
Best odds at Pinnacle · average 1.83 across 6 bookmakers
- Edge
- +1.8%
- Our probability
- 55.0%
- Market probability
- 52.4%
- Confidence
- Low
High scoring from both teams and a dense schedule create preconditions for total over 6, but the edge is unstable.
Match analysis
Toronto lost their last 2 home games (2:4, 2:3), avg total 6.6 in last 5 games. New Jersey won 4 straight, 3 in OT/SO (sign of PDO regression), avg total 7.8 in last 5, 7.1 away on season. Both teams playing second game of back-to-back: Leafs 08 Nov home vs Montreal, Devils 08 Nov OT on Island and flight to Toronto. Toronto missing key defensemen (Rielly DTD, Blankenburg, Rifai) and forwards (Marchenko, Wood). Devils only Casey. Market gives 52.4% on Over 6, my assessment 55% — edge 1.8% (below 3% threshold).
Key factors
- Toronto: 2 straight home losses, avg total 6.6 in last 5
- New Jersey: 3 straight OT/SO wins — unstable PDO, playing 2nd game in 24h after OT
- Toronto without key defensemen: Rielly (DTD), Blankenburg, Rifai; forwards Marchenko, Wood on IR
- Schedule: Leafs 3rd game in 6 days at home, Devils 4th in 6 days on road
- High avg scoring: Toronto home 5.8 on season, Devils away 7.1
Risks to the pick
- Toronto may play tight after losing streak, lowering tempo
- Rielly may play, strengthening Leafs defense
- Devils may score early and sit back, lowering total
- Lack of xG, goalie SV% and advanced metrics data for 2026-27 season
Form & standings
Toronto Maple Leafs Home
- 08 Nov 2026 home vs Montreal Canadiens 2:4 (L) · NHL
- 04 Nov 2026 home vs Utah Mammoth 2:3 (L) · NHL
- 31 Oct 2026 away vs Vancouver Canucks 4:2 (W) · NHL
- 29 Oct 2026 away vs Seattle Kraken 4:5 (L) · NHL
- 27 Oct 2026 away vs Calgary Flames 2:5 (L) · NHL
New Jersey Devils Away
- 08 Nov 2026 away vs New York Islanders 5:4 (W) · NHL
- 06 Nov 2026 home vs St. Louis Blues 5:4 (W) · NHL
- 04 Nov 2026 home vs Edmonton Oilers 4:3 (W) · NHL
- 30 Oct 2026 away vs Vegas Golden Knights 5:2 (W) · NHL
- 29 Oct 2026 away vs Colorado Avalanche 2:5 (L) · NHL
Head-to-head
First meeting of 2026-27 season
Injuries & team news
Toronto: Rielly (DTD, Lower Body), Marchenko (IR, Lower Body), Wood (IR), Blankenburg (IR), Rifai (IR); New Jersey: Casey (IR, Knee) | ESPN: Toronto Maple Leafs: Morgan Rielly (D) — Day-To-Day, Lower Body, expected return 2026-11-08; Kirill Marchenko (RW) — Injured Reserve, Lower Body, expected return 2026-11-17; Miles Wood (LW) — Injured Reserve, Undisclosed, expected return 2026-11-30; Nick Blankenburg (D) — Injured Reserve, Upper Body, expected return 2026-11-12; Marshall Rifai (D) — Injured Reserve, Lower Body, expected return 2026-11-14 | New Jersey Devils: Seamus Casey (D) — Injured Reserve, Knee, expected return 2026-11-21
Scoring trends
Toronto last 5 avg total 6.6; New Jersey last 5 avg total 7.8; New Jersey away last 7 avg total 7.1; Toronto home last 5 avg total 5.8
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Toronto Maple Leafs to win | 3.25 | LeoVegas (SE) | 2.667 | 36.2% |
| Match result | Draw | 4.35 | LeoVegas (SE) | 4.188 | 22.3% |
| Match result | New Jersey Devils to win | 2.11 | 1xBet | 1.839 | 52.1% |
| Total | Over 5.5 | 1.71 | 1xBet | 1.653 | 57.5% |
| Total | Under 5.5 | 2.25 | Tipico | 2.23 | 42.5% |
| Total | Over 6 | 1.85 | Pinnacle | 1.83 | 52.4% |
| Total | Under 6 | 2.05 | Pinnacle | 2.017 | 47.6% |
| Total | Over 6.5 | 2.3 | Marathon Bet | 2.095 | 45.8% |
| Total | Under 6.5 | 1.86 | Matchbook | 1.77 | 54.2% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.