Toronto Raptors vs Memphis Grizzlies prediction
Kick-off:
Our value pick · Total
Over 229.5
Best odds at Tipico · average 1.747 across 3 bookmakers
- Edge
- +5.5%
- Our probability
- 57.0%
- Market probability
- 52.2%
- Confidence
- Medium
Both teams have been high-scoring recently (avg total 237.1), the 229.5 line is low, and key defenders are out for both sides.
Match analysis
Toronto (118.2 scored/112.8 allowed) and Memphis (117.9/111.8) combine for a season average total ~230.35, while the last 5 games average total is 237.1. Memphis 4-0 away, Toronto 2-1 home. Leonard (Toronto, knee) and Stewart (Memphis, knee) are out — weakening defense. Memphis leads in rebounds (48.8 vs 42.2), creating second chances. 4 of 5 recent Raptors games and 2 of 5 Grizzlies games went over 229.5. At odds 1.85 and fair_prob 52.2%, a 57% assessment gives ~5.5% edge. Risk: if Barnes and Quickley don't play (GTD), Toronto's offense weakens.
Key factors
- Season average total: ~230.35, last 5 games each team: 237.1
- Memphis 4-0 away, Toronto 2-1 home
- Leonard (OUT, knee) and Stewart (OUT, knee) absent — defensive drop-off
- Grizzlies lead in rebounds (48.8 vs 42.2), creating second chances
- Market line 229.5 below recent form by ~7.6 points
- 4/5 recent Toronto games and 2/5 Memphis games went over 229.5
Risks to the pick
- Barnes and Quickley — GTD (groin/head), if both out — Toronto offense drops
- Grizzlies lost 3 straight (incl. 31 pts to OKC), possible mental slump
- Toronto just returned from 4-game road trip (@LAL, @LAC, @DEN, @MIL), fatigue possible
Form & standings
Toronto Raptors Home
- 07 Nov 2026 away vs Milwaukee Bucks 121:107 (W) · NBA
- 05 Nov 2026 away vs Denver Nuggets 109:128 (L) · NBA
- 03 Nov 2026 away vs LA Clippers 125:118 (W) · NBA
- 02 Nov 2026 away vs Los Angeles Lakers 125:131 (L) · NBA
- 30 Oct 2026 home vs Orlando Magic 114:121 (L) · NBA
Memphis Grizzlies Away
- 07 Nov 2026 home vs Oklahoma City Thunder 97:128 (L) · NBA
- 05 Nov 2026 home vs Indiana Pacers 103:107 (L) · NBA
- 03 Nov 2026 home vs New Orleans Pelicans 134:135 (L) · NBA
- 01 Nov 2026 home vs Sacramento Kings 136:105 (W) · NBA
- 30 Oct 2026 away vs Portland Trail Blazers 124:103 (W) · NBA
Head-to-head
First meeting of season (0-0)
Injuries & team news
TOR: Leonard OUT (knee), Bittle OUT (foot), Barnes GTD (groin), Quickley GTD (head). MEM: Pippen Jr. OUT (back), Stewart OUT (knee), Saunders OUT (knee) | ESPN: Toronto Raptors: Nate Bittle (C) — Out, Foot, expected return 2026-11-15; Immanuel Quickley (G) — Day-To-Day, Hamstring, expected return 2026-11-09; Scottie Barnes (F) — Day-To-Day, Groin, expected return 2026-11-09; Kawhi Leonard (F) — Out, Knee, expected return 2026-11-23 | Memphis Grizzlies: Scotty Pippen Jr. (G) — Out, Back, expected return 2026-11-11; Isaiah Stewart (C) — Out, Knee, expected return 2026-11-11; Richie Saunders (G) — Out, Knee, expected return 2026-12-01
Scoring trends
Season average total: ~230.35. Last 5 games: Toronto 239.8, Memphis 234.4. 4/5 recent Toronto and 2/5 Memphis went over 229.5
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Toronto Raptors to win | 1.69 | Betfair | 1.625 | 58.2% |
| Match result | Memphis Grizzlies to win | 2.4 | Betfair | 2.266 | 41.8% |
| Total | Over 229.5 | 1.85 | Tipico | 1.747 | 52.2% |
| Total | Under 229.5 | 2.04 | Unibet (NL) | 1.907 | 47.8% |
| Total | Over 230.5 | 1.95 | Pinnacle | 1.897 | 50.0% |
| Total | Under 230.5 | 1.93 | 1xBet | 1.899 | 50.0% |
| h2h_lay | Toronto Raptors | 1.75 | Matchbook | 1.735 | 58.8% |
| h2h_lay | Memphis Grizzlies | 2.5 | Matchbook | 2.48 | 41.2% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.