Winnipeg Jets vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction
Kick-off: · Finished
Our value pick · Total
Over 6.5
Best odds at Marathon Bet · average 2.043 across 11 bookmakers
- Edge
- +17.0%
- Our probability
- 52.0%
- Market probability
- 46.8%
- Confidence
- Medium
Total 6.5 Over offers value: both teams play open hockey, Winnipeg's defense weakened by injuries, and head-to-head produced 10 goals.
Match analysis
Tampa (11-3-2) is stronger but playing second game in two days with travel from Minnesota — market baked this into low total 6.5 (Under 53.2% fair prob). However Lightning averaging 4.3 goals last 10 games (ESPN preview) and scored 6 vs Winnipeg Oct 29. Jets (6-8-3) won last two games (one home 6:2, one away 5:4 OT), but lose key defensemen Morrissey (IR) and Fleury (DTD). Winnipeg's last 5 games average 8.2 goals, Tampa's 7.4. Both goalies have save percentages below league (Skinner .885, Hillebrand .880). Our model gives 52% on Over 6.5 vs 46.8% market — edge ~17% at odds 2.25.
Key factors
- Head-to-head: TB 6-4 WPG (10 goals, Oct 29)
- Winnipeg without Morrissey (IR) and Fleury (DTD) on defense
- Tampa 4.3 goals/game last 10; Winnipeg 3.7 goals allowed/game last 10
- Tampa on back-to-back with travel (played at MIN 07 Nov OT)
- Winnipeg rested 2 days, last home win 6:2 vs VAN
- Average total last 5 games both teams: 7.8 goals
Risks to the pick
- Tampa fatigue on back-to-back may reduce offense
- Vasilevskiy (.887) may start and 'steal' a low-scoring game
- Winnipeg home wins vs average opponents (VAN, MTL)
- Market may know lineup/injury info not in public sources
Form & standings
Winnipeg Jets Home
- 06 Nov 2026 home vs Vancouver Canucks 6:2 (W) · NHL
- 04 Nov 2026 away vs Montreal Canadiens 5:4 (W) · NHL
- 01 Nov 2026 away vs Carolina Hurricanes 0:7 (L) · NHL
- 30 Oct 2026 away vs Florida Panthers 2:5 (L) · NHL
- 29 Oct 2026 away vs Tampa Bay Lightning 4:6 (L) · NHL
Tampa Bay Lightning Away
- 08 Nov 2026 away vs Minnesota Wild 4:3 (W) · NHL
- 06 Nov 2026 home vs Chicago Blackhawks 4:1 (W) · NHL
- 04 Nov 2026 home vs Detroit Red Wings 4:2 (W) · NHL
- 31 Oct 2026 away vs Nashville Predators 4:5 (L) · NHL
- 29 Oct 2026 home vs Winnipeg Jets 6:4 (W) · NHL
Head-to-head
TB leads series 1-0: 29 Oct 2026 Tampa Bay Lightning 6:4 Winnipeg Jets
Injuries & team news
WPG: Morrissey (IR, wrist), Fleury (DTD, hand), Salomonsson (IR), Namestnikov (IR), Bjugstad (IR-LT). TB: Gourde (IR, hip, until Nov 12) | ESPN: Winnipeg Jets: Elias Salomonsson (D) — Injured Reserve, Personal, expected return 2026-11-30; Haydn Fleury (D) — Day-To-Day, Hand, expected return 2026-11-08; Josh Morrissey (D) — Injured Reserve, Wrist, expected return 2026-11-08; Vladislav Namestnikov (C) — Injured Reserve, Undisclosed, expected return 2026-11-28; Nick Bjugstad (C) — Injured Reserve, Pectoral, expected return 2027-03-11 | Tampa Bay Lightning: Yanni Gourde (C) — Injured Reserve, Hip, expected return 2026-11-12
Scoring trends
WPG last 5: avg total 8.2; TB last 5: avg total 7.4. Season stats (ESPN): WPG GF/G 2.65, GA/G 3.53; TB GF/G 3.75, GA/G 3.00
Odds comparison
| Market | Selection | Best | Bookmaker | Avg. | Fair prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Winnipeg Jets to win | 3.05 | Unibet (SE) | 2.57 | 37.6% |
| Match result | Draw | 4.37 | 1xBet | 4.171 | 22.4% |
| Match result | Tampa Bay Lightning to win | 2.15 | 1xBet | 1.89 | 50.7% |
| Total | Over 5.5 | 1.69 | 1xBet | 1.67 | 57.3% |
| Total | Under 5.5 | 2.28 | 1xBet | 2.243 | 42.7% |
| Total | Over 6.5 | 2.25 | Marathon Bet | 2.043 | 46.8% |
| Total | Under 6.5 | 1.87 | BetOnline.ag | 1.795 | 53.2% |
Odds at the time of analysis (). Prices move: always check your bookmaker.
Sources
18+ This prediction is analysis, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Please gamble responsibly.